In this article we will look at what is meant by a winning streak and how we can decide if we are experiencing one in bingo.

The first thing we need to do is to ensure that we avoid what is known at the Texas Sharpshooter’s Fallacy. This is where the legendary Texan takes his rifle and makes a large number of shots aimed at a barn door. He then examines the pattern of his shots and draws a target round them in such a way that maximum number of shots appear to have hit the target. Thus he can show his friends what a good marksman he is.

The relationship to this and bingo is that if we record all our wins and all our losses over a period of time, we can look back and see that there were times when we were winning more frequently than usual. If we took that period and constructed a time frame round it we might be tempted to say that that had been a winning streak, but that is exactly the same as the Texas Sharpshooter’s Fallacy.

For an event to be statistically significant its probability of occurring just by chance must be less than 5%, so we use this to determine how many future bingo games we need to win if we are on a winning streak.

Say we are playing a game and there are 50 other players and each player has a single ticket. On average we would expect to win 2% of the games. If we played 100 games then we would expect to win at least 2 of them. How many games would we need to win in order to significantly exceed chance alone?

The answer is that we would need to win 9 games out of 100 before we could consider that we are doing better than chance. If we find that we are consistently winning more than 9% of games with 50 players with one card each then it would seem that we are on a winning streak and that it might be worthwhile to increase our investment. Start your winning streak today!

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